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Enclosure
RECENT AFFAIRS IN CHINA.
(Translated from the Hochi Shimbun.)
It is not an easy matter to determine whether the late war between France and China has been productive of good or evil results to the Middle Kingdom. Looking at the question from every stand point, we have arrived at the conclusion that China will benefit in the long run by the rup- ture with France and the train of events that followed. The bombardiment of Fouchow, and the consequent sinking of ships, and loss of life; the raising of troops in various parts of country, en- tailing as it must have done an expenditure of many millions of taels; and other expenses inci- dental to the situation, were doubtless a con- siderable drain upon the Celestial exchequer. But, in our opinion, the gain to China is great. Most of her statesmen, hitherto profoundly iguo- rant of foreign affairs, and pufted up with self- conceit, bave had their eyes rudely opened to their own shortcomings, to their lack of army organiza- tion, to the value of the railway and the telegraphi, and to a necessity for a certain condition of pre- paredness to meet contingencies that may arise al any moment in the case of any nation. Further, these officials must have been awakened to a sense of the insufficiency of their method of provincial government, with all its attendant abuses and cor- ruption, and must have conceived a corresponding desire for a nearer approach to centralization in the administration. The experience gained during China's quarrel with France could never have been purchased by mandarindom with money; and to a certainty, the Tsung-li Yamên has been taught a lesson that will not be lost upon this or the succeed. ing generation of officials. Huge, lethargic China, has been, so to speak, subjected to a process of annealing through the pressure put upon her resources to make a show of resistance to the French demands, the country having been screwed up to concert pitch by the situation into which she was forced, and she was undoubtedly better prepared to offer resistance to France on the day the treaty was signed than at any other period of the dispute. To sum up, China has been driven into activity and unity by her quarrel with France to a point that would not have attained during the succeeding decade or two had she been per- mitted to slumber on unmolested; and given that she profits by her late experience and avails her- self of the lesson so rudely inculcated, her recent losses are nothing compared to her future gains. But we question whether China's late trouble gives her a second thought now that she is out of it. The rulers and their advisers no doubt think that the Tientsin Treaty has settled every. thing and for ever, but we are inclined to the be- lief that the peace made with France is not a permanent arrangement, and that circumstances may arise at any moment which will again involve the two countries in a dispute, and, should this come about, France will take such measures as to
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make the Middle Kingdom pay, and that smartly; the new score and the old will have to be wiped off together. By recent accounts, the French under General Courcy have been attacked by the An- namites, but the Chinese troops must have crossed the border long before this, and consequently had nothing to do directly with that affair. As the Annamites are nota warlike people, it is more than probable that they were instigated to commit this assault upon General Courcy's command by Liu, the chief of the Black Flags. He is known to be animated by a bitter hatred of the French, and bis antecedents warrant the assumption that he could be but little influenced by the orders of the Imperial Government, notwithstanding that his former of. fences against the authorities have been condoned, and his appointment to a post as a commander of Imperial forces has been made and officially re- cognised. Many dangers to the peace of China still exist, particularly in the south. So long as a French garrison is contiguous to her borders, and so long as bands of freebooters whom China is powerless to control hang about the French lines, there will be ever ready the ele- ments of a disturbance; and, as we have scen during late events, a very small matter is made the pretext for a war. The peace of China may also be disturbed in another direction. Rus- sia is ever on the watch for an opportunity to move southward, and her easy acquisition of the Amoor districts gives her confidence and hope for a further move towards the sun. Cautious and patient, the great Northern Power will only move when she knows she cannot well be checkmated, and the lesson she learned in Hi has doubtless not been lost upon her. That affair look years to ripen; the "Russians instigated the revolt, and supplied the rebels with arms and money; but they never reckoned that a commander like Tso-tsung-tang would be able to quell the rebellion and restore order, if not content, in the far-away border provinces. It took Tso years to bring the rebels to terms, and recent reports from the scene of his conquests state that there are again brewing on the borders trou- bles which are credited to Russian intrigue. The people are armed with Russian weapons, which is a pretty good sign that the latter are the instigators of the trouble, to say nothing that it is well known to be a card which Russia has played on severa! occasions in different places. We are sorry for China. With possible complications in the south and rebellion in the west to engage her attention, she will fall an ceasy prey to Russian encroachments | in the north, and, with her hands full elsewhere, be unable to keep such watch on her northern and Korcan borders as the maintenance of territorial integrity demands. China must be also more or less disturbed by the report of a secret treaty between Russia and Korea, notwithstanding that the existence of such a document is stoutly denied in some quarters. This secret treaty, if it exists, is a matter which also effects the interests of Japan; but we require better evidence than has yet been given to believe in anything of the sort at present.
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